Can it be too cold to snow?

Why deep cold makes so little snow

Snow takes three things, and the thermometer is only one of them.

• Water in the air. Colder air can hold less water vapor, the National Snow and Ice Data Center explains, which is why most heavy snowfalls come when the air near the ground is relatively mild — typically about 15°F or warmer.
• Something lifting it. Snow needs saturated air rising high enough for flakes to form aloft and fall. Very cold air sitting at the surface is usually stable — it resists rising — which is why, the NSSL says, it so rarely snows below 0°F.
• Cold enough where the flakes form. That’s at or below 32°F up where the snow is made, not necessarily where you’re standing. The NSIDC says snow can reach ground that’s a little above freezing — melting flakes cool the air around them — but as a general rule won’t form once the ground is 41°F or warmer.

None of that sets a floor. The storms lab points out that intense lifting can wring heavy snow out of very cold air, that the air higher up can be far warmer than at the ground and hold more moisture, and that wind can carry moisture in from somewhere else. The real limit is dryness: the NSIDC’s example is Antarctica’s Dry Valleys, bitterly cold but so dry — with winds wicking away what moisture there is — that they get little snow at all.

What the coldest Januaries we cover actually get

The coldest January among our destinations belongs to Fairbanks: a typical high of 1° and a typical low of -17°. It still snows — about 10.2 in in a typical January, with fresh snow on roughly 10 days. These are the 8 coldest Januaries we cover, coldest first.

Look at the last column. Fairbanks collects just 0.6 in of rain and melted snow in a typical January — the least of anywhere on that list. That’s the dry-air half of the answer. Juneau, whose January nights typically bottom out around 24°, gets 6.0 in, about 10 times as much water, and 24.5 in of snow to go with it.

It also tells you what kind of snow the deep cold makes. Count every drop of Fairbanks’s January water as snow and each inch of it still made at least 16 inches on the ground — drier and fluffier than the roughly 13 to 1 the storms lab gives as typical across the U.S. If any of that water fell as something other than snow, the snow was lighter still.

What these numbers can’t tell you. Our records hold each month’s typical high and low and its totals — not the thermometer reading while the flakes were coming down. So they can’t say whether any of Fairbanks’s snow fell on a -17° night or during a milder spell, and the storms lab’s point that snow is rare below zero still stands. What they do show is the pattern the scientists describe: the coldest place still gets snow, just not much of it, and not much water in it.

The snowiest Januaries aren’t the coldest

Traverse City tops our January snow list at 32.3 in, with typical nights around 15°. Fairbanks ranks 19th of the 66 places whose weather station keeps a snow record. The eight snowiest have typical January highs from 23° to 43° — every one of them well above Fairbanks’s 1°.

That lines up with what the NSIDC describes — heavy snow wants air near 15°F or warmer, because warmer air carries more water. It doesn’t mean these places never get cold; it means their snow tends to arrive when the air is mild enough to bring moisture with it.

What cold snow is like to stand in

• The flakes are small. Most snowflakes are under half an inch across, the NSIDC says; the big, clumping ones that come close to two inches usually need temperatures near freezing and light winds.
• It squeaks. The colder the snow, the louder the crunch underfoot — the ice grains rub harder against each other as they’re squashed. The NSIDC says there’s no telling exactly when the crunch starts.
• It’s mostly air. Ten inches of new snow can hold as little as a tenth of an inch of water or as much as four inches, per the NSIDC — which is why two snowfalls of the same depth can be so different to shovel.

For what a January in any of these places is like beyond the snow — daylight, what to pack, what locals do with the month — each place above links to its January page. Or see where to go in January, or any month.

Common questions

Can it be too cold to snow?

No. The National Snow and Ice Data Center says it can be too warm to snow but not too cold: snow can fall at very low temperatures as long as there is some moisture and some way to lift or cool the air. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory adds the fine print — it rarely snows below 0°F, because air that cold is usually too stable to rise — but intense lifting can still produce heavy snow in deep cold. Fairbanks, the coldest January we cover, still gets about 10.2 in of snow in a typical January.

What temperature does it snow at?

Snow forms when the air it forms in is at or below freezing, 32°F, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. It can still reach the ground when the ground is a little warmer than that, because melting flakes cool the air right around them — but as a general rule, the NSIDC says, snow will not form if the temperature at the ground is 41°F or higher.

At what temperature is it too cold to snow?

There isn’t one, and neither source gives one. The National Severe Storms Laboratory says snow is rare below 0°F; the National Snow and Ice Data Center says most heavy snowfalls come when the air near the ground is about 15°F or warmer. Both are statements about how often and how much, not a floor below which snow stops.

Why does it snow less when it is very cold?

Two reasons, one from each source. Colder air can hold less water vapor, so there is less to turn into snow (NSIDC). And very cold air near the ground tends to be stable — it does not want to rise — while snow needs saturated air lifted high enough for flakes to form and fall (NSSL). When people say it is “too cold to snow,” the NSSL says, what they really mean is that there isn’t enough lift to bring snow to the ground.

How many inches of snow make an inch of rain?

Across the U.S., about 13 inches of snow melts down to an inch of water, according to the National Severe Storms Laboratory — anywhere from about 2 inches for sleet to nearly 50 for very dry, powdery snow. The NSIDC warns that the familiar 10-to-1 rule is often wrong: most new snow in the U.S. is 4 to 10 percent water. In Fairbanks’s January, each inch of water makes at least 16 inches of snow.

Can this page tell me whether it will snow on my trip?

No — this site holds long-run records for each destination, not forecasts. The destination pages tell you what a typical month is like; for a particular day, the National Weather Service forecast for the place is the one to read.

For a particular day, the National Weather Service forecast is the one to read. Nothing on this page is a forecast.

Where this comes from

The science on this page is quoted from two sources, each named beside what we took from it. The January figures are the same 30 years of weather records (1991–2020) behind every destination page on this site — how we read them.

• NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory — Frequently Asked Questions About Winter Weather — why very cold air rarely snows (a stable atmosphere, not enough lift), how heavy snow can still fall in deep cold, and how many inches of snow make an inch of water. Read September 23, 2026.
• National Snow and Ice Data Center — The Science of Snow — that it can be too warm to snow but not too cold, the temperatures snow forms and reaches the ground at, where heavy snow usually falls, how much water new snow holds, big flakes, the crunch underfoot, and the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. Read September 23, 2026.

Both sources were read on September 23, 2026.